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When American and Europe¡¯s economy is in slowdown, the Australian economy is still doing well. However, Tom Skotnicki, in his article ¡°Sars and strife¡± which was in the journal of Business Review Weekly on May 1-7 00, reminds that Australian should be aware of the potential economy crisis and prepare for it because of the external adverse economic condition would bring profound negative influence to Australian business. The author uses many data, evidences and experts¡¯ opinions to support his argument, and analyzes the reasons objectively. Thus, this article is quite worth reading.
In the first part of this article, Skotnicki claims that a possible economic crisis might come and the Australian economy would be overwhelmed at this time without preparation. Although the Australian economy survived from the Asian economic crisis in 17-8 and the global slowdown in 001, it will face more challenges which come from the outside such as menace of Sars, depression in America and Europe, the political problem on the Korean Peninsula and the global instable oil price. Moreover, it becomes a barrier of the Australian exports that the Australian dollar maintains a high exchange rate.
In the other part, Skotnicki quotes several other economists¡¯ opinions who are the experts in this field. All of these economists mention that the economy of US and Europe will recover more slowly. Peter Drysdale, the professor of economics at the Australia National University, Saul Eslake, the chief economist of ANZ Banking Group and the Credit Suisse Asset Management economist Barry Hughes believe that Sars has clogged the world economy and would influence the whole world for a long time. Mark Vaile, the Trade Minister, focuses on the loss of export competitiveness because of the high exchange rate of Australian dollar. However, he argues that the problem of exports could be coped by exporters as long as the rate does not increase to US75cents. Among these four economists, there is only Eslake who suggests that Australian economy will improve in several years.
At the beginning of this article, Skotnicki states that the adverse economic conditions are including the fear of Sars, slow development of United Stated, less competitiveness of export, political problems of Korea and pressure of oil price. However, he has just analyzed the first three and do not mention the last two in the article. Moreover, the structure of the whole article is a little confusing. The author do not arrange the materials in a certain order, thus it is a little hard to read.
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Although there are two negative points in this article, it is still worth reading. Initially, this topic is a quite controversial and complex argument. It just happens in the future, and what people could do is only making hypothesis based on information of many fields. The author reminds people to pay attention to the future of Australian economy, and analyzes the reason, which might obstruct the development of economy accurately and comprehensively. It also shows that Skotnicki is a sensitive person and has a wide range of knowledge in many fields.
Next, when Skotnicki explains the reasons, he uses many relevant examples and statistics to support his opinion, which are carefully collected. In addition, he not only just lists the evidence or data, but also interprets them. For example, he cites the definition of GDP in order to analyze the speed of economy development of US and Europe, which it enables readers to understand directly. Moreover, he also provides many details in this article, which enhance the deep understanding. He also quotes several professional economists¡¯ opinions who are the experts in these fields to strengthen his own statement.
Following that, the author presents his arguments objectively and cautiously the language of this article is objective and cautious. As a business article, the author does not use the motive language to make the readers believe something but uses the facts and statistics to present the realities. Moreover, Skotnicki has stated not only his own ideas, but also the opposite situation. He even does like this when he quotes the experts¡¯ opinions Although Eslake worry about the influence of Sars and slow development speed of American and European economy, he suggests that Australian economy will make improvement after a few years. Meanwhile, Skotnicki analyzes some questions with the facts and data directly, and inductive the answers. People could understand the circumstances of the economy as soon as they compare the statistics of GDP, and obtain the answers by themselves. It makes the article reasonable and logical.
In short, this article is extreme professional and objective since the author induces his argument from many relevant facts and data and supports his argument by several experts¡¯ opinions, which makes the article reasonably and reliably. Therefore, the readers can obtain an objective and comprehensive picture of Australian economic trend.
Skotnicki, T. 00 ¡®SARS and strife,¡¯ Business Review Weekly, May1-7, 00, pp.14-16
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