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Will Sri Lanka's rubber industry bounce back?
By Ananda S Wijayarathne
An improvement in prices has been responsible for an increase in rubber production last year and the first seven months of this year. This has resuscitated new hopes of a revival of rubber production and the development of a viable and productive rubber industry. Whether this is possible in view of a secular decline in rubber production for over three decades, is an interesting question.
Increase in production ; In 00 rubber production recorded a modest increase of 5 million kilograms after years of declining production. Last years increase in rubber production of 5. per cent is a comparison with the previous years production that was the lowest ever. This increasing trend of last year has continued into the first seven months of this year, when rubber production increased by . per cent to 5.8 metric tons. It is likely that rubber production this year could be around 5 million metric tons. This would be about a 10 per cent increase from that of 000.
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Prices; The recent increase in production has been owing to an improvement in rubber prices from April last year. Several factors account for the improvement in prices. The price of synthetic rubber has increased perhaps due to a rise in petroleum prices. The major rubber producing countries of Asia have come to an agreement to curtail rubber production by 4 per cent, while the demand for natural rubber from China has increased. These factors are likely to exert an upward pressure on prices, a welcome change from the crash in rubber prices with the Asian economic crisis in 17.
Last year rubber prices increased by about 5 per cent in rupee terms. Latex crepe prices doubled between December 001 and December 00. Since 17 rubber prices declined to levels that were lower than the cost of production. This curtailed rubber tapping till there was an upturn in prices. Currently it is contended that rubber is the most profitable plantation crop. If prices continue to rise the profitability of rubber is assured.
Secular Decline ; Despite the improvement in prices, the expectation of the rubber industry attaining the heights it once held is most unlikely owing to the decline of the industry in the past four decades. Some of the declining trends cannot be reversed. As far back as in 160 rubber production reached a peak production of 160 million kilograms. Since then it declined and in 000 rubber production was only 87 million kilograms. In 000 the countrys rubber production was only 54 per cent of that 40 years ago. Rubber production in 000 was 1 per cent less than six years ago in 15. In 001 rubber production decreased by a further 1.8 per cent to reach the lowest production ever of 86 million kilograms.
This performance in Rubber production has indeed been very disappointing. It would be difficult to reverse the factors accounting for this decline even with a remunerative price. Many factors account for this. The declining prices for rubber, especially the shock of the Asian crisis in 16 dealt a severe blow to an industry plagued with a number of problems.
The industry has hardly recovered from this set back. Meanwhile rubber lands are being converted to urban and industrial uses that are more lucrative. The area under rubber production has declined from about 00 thousand hectares in 10 to 157 thousand hectares in 000. The area under rubber cultivation was the same even in 00.but the area under tapping had reduced from 1,000 hectares in 001 to 15,000 hectares last year. This trend may gain momentum as the pace of urbanization and industrialization gathers momentum.
If this trend of a reduction in extent under rubber continues there would be inadequate domestic rubber for local rubber goods manufacture. This is especially unfortunate, as the trend has been for a greater use of domestic rubber for local rubber goods manufacture. It would indeed be a sad day if our rubber manufacturing industries were unable to source the raw material from within the country.
Future ; The replanting of rubber and inter-cropping of smallholdings rubber with other crops would require to be explored. The latter would ensure greater resilience in the face of fluctuating international prices that has characterised the rubber industry for a long time. There is a need to expand the area under higher yielding rubber clones to achieve much higher rubber yields than at present. In fact Sri Lankas rubber yield is about the lowest.
In view of rubber-based industries in the country expanding production, a new perspective on the future of rubber is needed. There is every rationale for increasing rubber production owing to this ready market for over 60 per cent of current rubber production. An expansion in the area under cultivation and improved varieties of rubber being planted would be needed.
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